CIA: Team Bush Ignored Prewar Forecasts

CIA says Bush ignored prewar forecasts
Thursday Oct 13 08:46 AEST

[2004 CIA report:] ... [Team Bush] paid scant attention to prewar US intelligence on Iraq predicting the ethnic and tribal turmoil ...
... agency was largely correct in its estimate of cultural and political postwar issues and "accurately forecast the reactions of the ethnic and tribal factions in Iraq".
... prewar Iraq intelligence ... concluded ... Saddam had no operational or collaborative ties with al-Qaeda and [accurately] calculated the war's impact on oil markets.

"Intelligence assessments on post-Saddam issues were particularly insightful ... " "In an ironic twist, the policy community was receptive to technical intelligence (the weapons program) where the analysis was wrong, but apparently paid little attention to intelligence on cultural and political issues (post-Saddam Iraq), where the analysis was right."
[--2004 CIA report]

... published in the current issue of ... Studies in Intelligence ... [originally presented 2004-07-29]

... produced by a team led by former CIA deputy director Richard Kerr ...

İAAP 2005
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13 Oct 2005 by Simon W. Moon